Month: August 2018

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Market

Looking back in hindsight the realtor consensus pegged 2012 as the bottom of the market.

Sierra Sotheby’s International Realty Listings
Depressed home pricing motivated buyers due to historically low-interest rates which averaged 3.657% for 30 year fully amortized conforming loans. 

 

An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.

And now back to your regularly scheduled program, Lake Tahoe …

The 2015 – 2016 season may turn out to be the perfect winter.

Everyone relishes the thriving economic conditions after suffering through a series of abnormally dry winters.

Most realtors in the Lake Tahoe region point to a home and second home market that has been on an upswing for several years.  

In fact, Tahoe Mountain Realty said …

“Sales in the Lake Tahoe region surpassed $1 billion for the third consecutive year.” 

Tahoe Mountain Realty Property Alert

The absorption rate — the supply of how many homes are for sale compared to the supply of properties that were in demand and could be sold at the current sales pace —  revealed a more balanced market.

Tahoe Mountain Reality wrote that 

“the region is now balanced with a 6-months supply available.”

In the luxury real estate market Lake Tahoe experienced the most significant surge in new home construction in over a decade especially in 

  • Martis Camp, 
  • Gray’s Crossing, 
  • Lahontan, 
  • Schaffer’s Mill 
  • and Old Greenwood.

5-Year Time Frames from 2009 — 2014

Not that long ago, during the winter of 2011 – 2012, the absorption rate for South Lake Tahoe was driven by the trend of short and bank-owned (REO) sales. 

That market was out of balance which realtors say is roughly 2 to 4-months supply of inventory.  

You’re in a “buyers market” if it takes longer than a 4 months absorption rate.  

Buyers simply have a greater selection of properties to choose from. 

 If the sales pace picks up and only takes an estimated 2 months or less to clear the inventory of homes, then you’re in a “sellers market.” 

Sellers face less competition from fewer available choices for motivated buyers.

South Lake Tahoe, realtors claimed in 2012, hadn’t seen a balanced market for quite some time. 

Looking back in hindsight the realtor consensus pegged 2012 as the bottom of the market.

Luke Curran wrote in 2014 how the Lake Tahoe real estate market at the end of 2006 and the beginning of 2007 was stronger than ever.  

But, within a span of a year home values dropped like a stone.  

To the bottom of the lake.

If you had wanted to sell, you missed your top dollar opportunity.  

If you had the cash and a little foresight you could have taken advantage of the decline in prices.

Kelly Smith in the fall of 2010 speculated about Truckee homes, condos and lots sales between 2008 to 2010 picking up due to the declining values in both Truckee and Northstar.

Writing about West Lake Tahoe over the previous 3 years Kelly said the decrease in value on average amounted to a historic trend 

North Lake Tahoe from Incline Stateline to Tahoe City didn’t fair any better. 

David Westfall pointed to the impact of California’s long-term drought on the local ski and snowboarding resorts.

“Perhaps no other community was as impacted by successive dry winters as Northstar.” 

But the timing was ripe for substantial investment in Northstar from … 

  • Vail Resorts, 
  • Mountainside Partners and 
  • Kennedy-Wilson. 

Luke Curran described how real estate market differs among subdivisions of the Lake Tahoe area.

For instance, condos on the west shore are pricier, while in 2014 the market for condos at Squaw and Alpine hadn’t grown as rapidly as other areas.

During the winter of 2012 -2013 in February the Yee Hedley Group compared year-end 2012 to 2011.  

The Yee Hedley Group Featured Listings

They found positive signs in the MLS listing inventory.  “

It was at an all time low, just like the good old days back in 2004 and 2005.

That’s not all.  

They documented signs of 

… dramatic improvement upon comparing overall home sale statistics from 2012 to 2011.”

David Westfall, a month earlier, in January 2013, assessed the North Lake Tahoe and Truckee markets.  

He found a silver lining for single family homes.

“Depressed home pricing motivated buyers due to historically low-interest rates which averaged 3.657% for 30 year fully amortized conforming loans.” 

Sotheby’s International Realty published year-end reviews of Lake Tahoe sales from 2012 to 2015. 

Sierra Sotheby’s International Realty Listings

In addition to the numbers they framed the real estate market.

“It spans 72 miles of Lake Tahoe shoreline, two state lines and a handful of California and Nevada counties and four multiple listing services – North & West Shore, East Shore, Incline Village and Truckee.”

Sotheby’s agreed with Luke Curran who wrote in the spring of 2014, 

“Buyers want a low price on a home and after the value of the home has gone up, and they sell it, they want a profit”.  

Before you make the big financial decision to purchase or sell a home in the Truckee /Lake Tahoe you need to drill down into the micro market data. 

Sotheby’s farms the 

  • North & West Shore, 
  • East Shore, 
  • Incline Village, 
  • Truckee, and 
  • South Lake Tahoe markets.

Luke Curran broke the Lake Tahoe down into five areas he covered: 

  • North Shore, 
  • West Shore, 
  • Squaw / Alpine, 
  • Truckee and 
  • Northstar.

David Westfall breaks Tahoe and Truckee into 10 micro market neighborhoods, 5 apiece.

Tahoe:

  • Alpine Meadows
  • North Shore
  • Squaw Valley
  • Tahoe City Area
  • West Shore

Truckee:

  • Donner Lake
  • Glenshire Area
  • Golf Course Communities
  • Northstar
  • Tahoe Donner

Part Two: Is Tahoe’s Real Estate Market About to Repeat Itself? Will You Miss Out?

Steps:

22) Selectively evaluate the best quality-of-life communities to live in and weigh the tradeoffs of risk and rewards for accruing real estate appreciation along a progression of rural and small towns that meet what your pocket books can afford.

25) Compare what “life” was like in those communities before the Great Recession, how resilient each was during the economic downturn, and to what degree did each bounce back after with any “economic hangover.” 

30) Review headlines and relevant news as far back as you can find online to surface each community’s unique pulse and identify information necessary to make your decision. Is there a “ticking time bomb” issue you may uncover that eliminates the resort from your bucket list? Search on Topix.com.

34) On your visits look for any newer developments that may trigger changes in neighborhood patterns. New construction in or around the neighborhood? Major regional economic adjustments? Transition from households with children to ones that are empty nests? Rezoning, and dramatically rising/falling land values?

 

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Time to Circle the Lake and Discover Your Next Adventure

Packed in SUVs like sardines, they imagine sliding and skiing and all the fun they bring chasing runs when the lifts open.

 

Yup, Gold Hill. And, then finally Virginia City, brief home of Samuel Clemens where he became Mark Twain.

Part One: Tahoe

An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.

What if your designer spouse, roommate or mother felt the Washoe clock was so valuable that it proudly sat on your contemporary living room wall, but in a square designer frame?

If you took your marker and drew a line from the center of the lake to the upper left-hand corner at the top of the frame through the clock – lake’s “9” and “10” you’d find Tahoe City on the lake’s border.

And, Olympic Valley (Squaw Valley and Alpine Meadows resorts) Northstar Resort and Truckee.

Most of the tourists originating in Silicon Valley and Sacramento take I-80 northeast to Truckee for quick access.

Packed in SUVs like sardines, they imagine sliding and skiing and all the fun they bring chasing runs when the lifts open.

They connect to Northstar and the lake by taking SR 267 from Truckee and on to Olympic Valley over CA 89.

Actually, if they craved fresh powder at Kirkwood, or at Sierra-at-Tahoe Resort they’d opt for the southern route choosing US 50 leaving Sacramento.

Many choose that route to take them into South Lake Tahoe at the “6” on our Washoe clock.

You can too.

Check first with Siri.

No law against it.

But, after a stop at Sierra-at-Tahoe, and continuing on, you eventually connect with the 89.

The road.

Not on your loved one’s square-bordered contemporary clock face.

Following Lake Tahoe’s western border travel south, between the “9” and the “6,” you’ll come to the intersection where the US 50 and CA 89 meet.

Which is a good thing, trust me.

The 50 north takes you to the southern corner of the lake where Stateline (Nevada) and South Lake Tahoe (California) border each other again at “5” on the clock.

There you’ll find the gondola taking you to Heavenly Mountain Resort just on the California side of the border.

Slowly glide up the mountain top to where you can snowboard and ski all the runs that crisscross back and forth across the state lines.

Then 50 connects the south lake with the north lake following  the eastern Nevada shore until “3” on the ticking clock face, near Glenbrook.

It picks up Route 28 to complete the circle once you pass Lake Tahoe State Park and pull into Incline Village.

But, forget all that.

The part about traveling north.

When US 50 connects to the Luther Pass Road (CA 89) (formerly known as Emerald Bay Road and West Lake Boulevard) somewhere between Echo Lake and Meyers, you travel south for a while until near Sorensen you exit onto Carson Pass Highway (88).

From there it’s a long hop and a skip past Caples Lake until you find Kirkwood Meadows Dr. and Kirkwood Mountain Resort, duh.

Oh, and while we’ve mentioned Glenbrook, the 50 these days takes you east where you can connect with US 395.

You go north on the merged US 50 and US 395 until just south of Carson City, NV.

Then the 50 continues east, now called Lincoln Highway, until just beyond Mound House.

Drive to Route 341 and take it north from the 50 intersection.

Continue until the Route 341 forks and take Route 342 just south of Silver City.

Guess what’s up next?

Yup, Gold Hill.

And, then finally Virginia City, brief home of Samuel Clemens where he became Mark Twain.

And, if you are still playing along with us, Virginia City sits almost directly east of Truckee.

In the upper right hand corner of your spouse’s, roommate’s or mother’s framed Washoe-manufactured leaf-shaped tick tock clock.

Enough about that for now.

During the summer of 2015, you’ll recall we noticed an emerging trend first in Durango and then in the Summit County, Colorado, ski and snowboard resort towns.

The local real estate markets began heating up.

Before we continue our story about Lake Tahoe (and later Mammoth Lakes, California) let’s visit the pros and cons of investing in real estate.

Especially in light of the equity locked up in Baby Boomer households given some of the reverse mortgage scenarios and calculated risks.

Steps:

(32) Plan extended seasonal vacations during summer and winter months. Group destination locations together in regional trips to explore what several bucket list towns have to offer in the general vicinity – with only a week or two vacation time to spend, we recommend organizing your itinerary by travel regions.

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Tahoe

Somebody estimated the sheer volume of water could cover the an area as large as the entire state of California more than 12 inches deep.

 

Nevada owns the water, the shoreline and the gambling on the right, eastern side — roughly a third of Lake Tahoe itself.

 

An excerpt from Book Five in “The Knowledge Path Series” dedicated to helping you find the place of your dreams in the Sierra Mountain resorts.

In the Sierra Nevada mountains Lake Tahoe closely resembles Summit County’s proximity to pristine beauty and ski resorts. 

  • Is now the time to invest your equity in a home or rental bordering both California and Nevada?
  • What do you need to know before taking the plunge into the Lake Tahoe market?

Recall both lifestyle bucket lists — of seven zip codes — on the California itinerary for former Whitefish, Montana “birds of a feather” (BOF) flocking to new nests. 

Four of them you’ll remember border Lake Tahoe.

California Itinerary: Sierra Nevada –

  • Truckee, 96161, 96162;
  • Squaw Valley, 96146; and
  • Tahoe City, 96145

But, first the stats.

Lake Tahoe itself.

  • Elevation – 6,229 feet above sea level
  • Length 22 miles 
  • Width – varies from 10 to 12 miles 
  • Depth – 1,685 feet at its deepest
  • On the list of deepest lakes in North America, Lake Tahoe ranks #3.  
Heading for the Beach

Somebody estimated the sheer volume of water could cover the an area as large as the entire state of California more than 12 inches deep.  

The Washoe Tribe of Native Americans named it “Big Water.” 

A tug of war between the Great and Evil Spirit threw off falling leaves and created Lake Tahoe and a few others nearby including our favorite, Fallen Leaf Lake.

Proud locals, realtors and visitor bureau-types claimed Lake Tahoe is (or was) 97% pure, at least as of the 2003 timeframe when we first checked it out.

Adventures in the Eastern Sierras

The Lake attracted tourists dating as far back as the 1860s, when Mark Twain wrote a few admiring words now etched on a North Tahoe Beach boulder

 “… the fairest picture the whole Earth affords” 

Historically it’s unclear if his inscription occurred before or after he accidentally set a big chunk of the north shore on fire. 

At least, that’s what he confesses to in “Roughing It.”

If you understand the local traffic patterns – when to start and when to finish –  you can drive around the lake in about three hours. 

Or you can hike all or portions of the 165-mile Tahoe Rim Trail.  

You’d need 15 days to circle the lake, especially if you stopped to enjoy the fairest picture.

Imagine an old-fashioned tick tock clock hanging on your parents or grandparents wall.  

You know the kind with a short hand (why did they call them hands?) for hours and a longer second-hand (not for seconds) but, for minutes.

Now imagine that those poor pioneer families who survived the infamous Donner Party cannibalism led their wagon train into the promised land, to what is now Lake Tahoe.  

And imagine further that their precious clock endured the grueling trek with them from Independence, Missouri.  

But, the harrowing ordeal stretched it lengthwise (ok, like in a classic “Mickey Mouse” cartoon) and ended with an uneven elongated face.

And, if the Washoes manufactured it you might say the clock resembled a leaf, right?

Straighter edged on the right side (eastern) and a half circle on the opposite western side.

Got it?

Good.  

Here’s the artistic part.

Now, if you took a marker (not a permanent marker) and you slowly start to draw a straight line on the clock face you could connect where the elongated “12” should be found straight down towards where the “6” could be found.

Kids. (Or grandkids).

Don’t try this at home.

But, if you stopped drawing the line to a point almost even with “4” and continued to draw it to the right at a slight downward angle you would complete the line at the clock’s edge between the “4” and “5”.

Taking the Scenic Route

Guess what?

You would have drawn the Nevada – California border on a map of the lake. 

It’s that western border you notice on maps of Nevada.  

Where Nevada is wider and boxier at the top, but slices back eastward near the bottom.

Or on the eastern edge of California. 

Where it curves and slides in a laid-back fashion frolicking in the Pacific Ocean and spooning and cuddling Nevada’s vertical, then angled edge.

Except for the part of their bed that is rocky, full of spikier mountain peaks and ancient volcanic cliffs.

The imagined line in reality separates ownership of Lake Tahoe.  

Nevada owns the water, the shoreline and the gambling on the right, eastern side — roughly a third of Lake Tahoe itself.

The north shore boundary between California to the left (ha ha) and Nevada to the right  (ha ha) neatly bisects the top of the clock between the “1” and the “2” in “12.”   

On the Nevada side you find Crystal Bay at the split and Incline Village as you move clockwise on Route 28.

Wanna play some more?

Part Two: Time to Circle the Lake and Discover Your Next Adventure

Steps:

(32) Plan extended seasonal vacations during summer and winter months. Group destination locations together in regional trips to explore what several bucket list towns have to offer in the general vicinity – with only a week or two vacation time to spend, we recommend organizing your itinerary by travel regions.